A new market-research update says rare-earth demand growth is likely to keep running into a highly concentrated refining and permanent-magnet supply chain. For industrial buyers, the useful signal is less the headline forecast than the continuing gap between where magnet demand is growing and where qualified material is produced.
Strategic Revenue Insights said on October 18 that its updated model values the rare-earth elements market at USD 7.5 billion in 2025 and forecasts USD 19.2 billion by 2034, equivalent to an 11% compound annual growth rate over 2026-2034. Those figures are the research company’s forecast, not reported industry revenue or a guaranteed outcome.
Supply concentration increases downstream
The report cites International Energy Agency data indicating that China’s share rises from about 60% of magnet-rare-earth mining to roughly 91% of separation and refining and 94% of sintered permanent-magnet production. It also points to electric vehicles and mobility as a fast-growing end use and identifies permanent magnets as the largest application in its market model.
The update distinguishes two policy dates. A wider U.S.-China trade arrangement was reported as extended to January 10, 2027, while the legal text associated with the suspension of several October 2025 rare-earth measures still carries a November 10, 2026 date. The April 2025 licensing regime for seven medium and heavy rare earths was not part of that suspension. Buyers should not assume that the wider trade timeline automatically changes every rare-earth control.
Traceability matters more than a market-size headline
For a magnet buyer, a forecast does not replace supplier evidence. A more useful sourcing file connects the finished magnet to its alloy, metal and separated-oxide stages and records origin, processing location and qualification status. This matters particularly for dysprosium- and terbium-containing grades, defence-related origin requirements and customers that need continuity outside one processing route.
Procurement teams can use the update as a reason to compare dual-source readiness, contractual lead times, grade-specific substitution options and recycled-content qualification. They should still validate all commercial claims directly with suppliers and treat policy dates as subject to formal government changes.
Source: Strategic Revenue Insights press release, published October 18, 2026.